The Category Declined at Both Retailers
Lowe's holds 62.4% of the composite decking board market at $33.4 million. Home Depot holds 37.6% at $20.1 million. Both declined in Q1 2026 — Lowe's by 9.4%, Home Depot by 10.3%.
The instinct is to blame price. But Home Depot's average selling price rose 2.6% to $27.17, and Lowe's edged up 0.1% to $28.30. Consumers are buying fewer boards, not cheaper boards.
Lowe's even added 117 item-doors during the period and still declined. Revenue per door dropped 15.7%, from $23,500 to $19,800. More shelf space did not compensate for softer sell-through. When distribution expands and velocity falls simultaneously, the constraint is demand — not price, not ranging.
Trex Holds Steady While Brands Reshuffle Around It
Trex is the anchor of this category at both retailers, and it acted like one. At Home Depot, Trex grew 3.9% to $7.9 million, gaining 5.3 share points to reach 39.3% — the only growing brand on the shelf. At Lowe's, Trex holds 79% share at $26.3 million. Revenue declined 7.7% in line with the category, but Trex never cut price, holding ASP at $28.11 with a 0.9% increase.
The real movement happened around Trex. TimberTech exited Home Depot entirely, surrendering 8.9 share points. Deckorators jumped 138% off a small base to fill the gap, gaining 6 share points and pricing 6.5% below peers at $26.30. Fiberon declined 11.1% at Home Depot despite only modest distribution loss — a velocity problem, not a shelf problem.
At Lowe's, TimberTech added 68 doors yet still fell 21.3%, with ASP down 3.0%. More shelf space with worse results. Deckorators was the steadiest performer at Lowe's, declining only 4.9% while holding price.
Geography Concentrates the Pain
The decline is not spread evenly. New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania combined account for $1.93 million of the category's losses — roughly one-third of the total decline. Michigan dropped 37.6%, signaling a structural issue in the Great Lakes region beyond seasonal noise.
Growth exists but is too small to offset the losses. A South-Central pocket led by Kansas (up 28.3%) added $371,000 in gains against $5.14 million in losses — a 1-to-14 ratio.
The regional retailer split is equally stark. The West is structurally Home Depot territory — Massachusetts at 68%, Washington at 59%, California at 55%. The South and Southwest belong to Lowe's — Texas at 84%, North Carolina at 86%. Manufacturers need to know which retailer dominates their key states because the brand mix and competitive set change completely by region.
This is the kind of state-level, store-level visibility that census-level data makes possible. Datavations tracks every SKU, every store, every sale across 11,936+ locations, giving manufacturers the regional precision to act on what national averages hide.
The 8-Foot Board Story Within the Story
The 8-foot board segment reveals where growth is actually happening. At Lowe's, 8-foot boards grew 2.0%, driven by three new SKUs and one Trex POD expansion that added $461,000. But one existing SKU — Trex Tide Pool — lost $347,000 on its own, nearly wiping out the gains. Without Tide Pool, Lowe's 8-foot segment would be up $475,000.
At Home Depot, Fiberon's two flagship 8-foot SKUs (Coastal Gray and Forest Brown) declined a combined $207,000 while Deckorators' new Summit Terra Brown added $128,000. Trex held essentially flat.
Whether Tide Pool's decline is permanent or a one-quarter dip changes the 8-foot thesis entirely — a question only consistent, SKU-level tracking can answer.
What This Means for Manufacturers
A shrinking category with rising prices and expanding distribution is a velocity problem. Three patterns from Q1 2026 stand out.
First, the brands that won did not chase volume. Trex held price and gained share at Home Depot. Deckorators grew 138% by filling a gap, not by cutting price. The lesson for any line review is clear: protecting price and taking share beats discounting to move units.
Second, more shelf space does not create demand. Lowe's added 117 item-doors and still lost 9.4%. TimberTech added 68 doors and fell 21.3%. When the category is contracting, broader ranging just dilutes velocity per door.
Third, the decline is geographic, not uniform. One-third of the losses sit in three Northeastern states. A manufacturer defending margin should be managing assortment regionally, not applying a national playbook to a regional problem.
How big is the composite decking board category at Home Depot and Lowe's?
Composite decking boards generated $53.5 million across Home Depot and Lowe's in Q1 2026, down 9.8% year over year. Lowe's holds 62.4% of the market ($33.4 million) and Home Depot holds 37.6% ($20.1 million).
Which brand leads composite decking at Lowe's?
Trex dominates composite decking at Lowe's with 79% market share and $26.3 million in Q1 2026 revenue. Trex held its average selling price at $28.11, up 0.9% year over year.
Why did TimberTech leave Home Depot?
TimberTech exited Home Depot entirely in Q1 2026, surrendering 8.9 share points. Deckorators absorbed much of the gap, growing 138% to reach 9.7% share. TimberTech remains at Lowe's but declined 21.3% despite adding 68 doors.
Is composite decking demand declining?
Yes. Units fell 10.7% (228,000 fewer boards) in Q1 2026 while prices rose at both retailers, indicating genuine demand softness rather than price resistance. The decline is concentrated in the Northeast, with New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania accounting for one-third of the total loss.
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